Search in decline?

I remember the first time I used Google. It was 1999. I had already grown accustomed to having to scroll through page after page of irrelevant search results on the other search engine sites. When I heard about Google, I gave it a try and literally did about a dozen searches in a row, all the while asking myself - "How did they do that?"

It was my first revelation about the difference between science and technology. Science defines how and why something happens. Technology seeks to apply that science in a useful way. (Beneficial to whom is an area for much discussion.)

Google had created a completely new science for how search works. A uniquely powerful search engine that combined low-cost infrastructure and data-mining based on an algorithm that weighted many more factors than a simple keyword match. For ten years the other search engines have either joined forces with Google or suffered a futile game of catch-up. Today Google is to search what Xerox was to photocopying 30 years ago.

Today the magnificence of the Google search algorithm has lost much of its luster for me. I see a steady drop in the quality of search results. There are 2 primary reasons:

1. SEO (Search Engine Optimization)
2. SEM (Search Engine Marketing)

The pristine quality of search results is being eroded by the manipulation of page rankings and the introduction of "relevant" ads. There are millions if not billions of dollars being spent on Search Engine Optimization (SEO) - and that figure is growing exponentially. The purpose of these dollars is to elevate the ranking of a website in the major search engines. Basically to move a website from page 6 of the search results to page 1.

But if Google was so good at finding the best match of information for my query, then why do we need SEO? When my website moves from page 6 to page 1 in the search results, then somebody was displaced from the first page. Was that other website less significant to my query? Or did I simply cut in front of him in line because I knew the rules better than he? Left to the the free market, those who invest the most in SEO will become those who dominate the search results. This was not the premise that gave rise to Google. I fear that the future of search will be that of a marketing tool and less a research tool. Which takes me to my next topic - Search Engine Marketing (SEM).

In the early days of Google, there were no sponsored ads, only search results. But a company needs to make money. So ads were inserted into the right margin and labeled as such. Then, sensing the reluctance of some (like me) to click on an ad rather than a true search result, the sponsored ads made their way into the left side at the top of the list - only with less signage. The goal for an advertiser is clear, if you cannot show-up in the search results using SEO, then buy your way in with SEM. The number of true search results is now fewer because of the display of contextual search ads.

Let me take a moment to clarify that I see nothing wrong with how Google, ASK, MSN Live, or any of the other search engine firms are doing business. I understand the need to be profitable and for a public company to increase revenues. My point is to call attention to how these revenues are being garnered and my opinion that they will ultimately decrease the utilization and reliance on search. I state this simply because the results today are less credible. When you read a newspaper or magazine do you place more credence in the editorial content or the advertising content? The more that marketers are able to influence the display of search results, the less credible the search results will be.

For the firms who cannot afford to be in the top 12 search results, their future success must be tied to something other than search. Which firms can afford to be in the top 12? I'd say these would be the large, dominant businesses. In a market where 50 firms flourish, can they all be on page 1? No. Then where should firms 13-50 spend their money? In an effort to leap-frog into the first page of search results? Or will an alternative method appear on the e-landscape?

In my opinion, the evolution of web marketing will tack away from search engines. The waters are too crowded and the costs are growing too high. Just having a website is not enough to gain site traffic - but, moving into the first page of search results is unachievable for most. How will you position yourself to succeed in the rough waters ahead?